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Chinanews, Beijing, Dec. 4 – As food prices continue to climb, analysts1 expect that CPI growth might remain at a high level in November to hit a historical high point. In light of this, interest rate raise might become inevitable2 in the predictable future, the China Business News reported.
Last September, CPI dropped to a relatively3 low point for a short time. In October, however, it regained4 a high level of 6.5%, the same historical high point that once occurred in last August. In November, as food prices remain high, there is little chance for CPI growth to come down. On Monday, the State Development and Reform Commission's Price Information Center published information of commodities it gathered last week. According to SDRC, the average retail5 sales price of pork reached 26.26 yuan a kilo in 36 large and medium cities, which was 1.23% more than the previous month. This was the seventh consecutive6 week that meat price witnessed a rise. In addition to meat, the prices of vegetables, fruits and cooking oil also rose for several weeks on end. Shen Yin & Wan7 Guo Securities Co., Ltd. released a report to say that in November, CPI growth will remain at a high level of 6.7%-6.9%. It expects that CPI growth rate in November will reach 6.8%, the highest point this year. The high CPI growth is attributed to the hovering8 food prices and the rising costs in transportation, the report says. “Based on the current trend of food prices, we expect that CPI growth will not fall down in November and it might possibly reach 6.5%, the highest point this year, or even higher than that,” said Lu Zhengwei, a macro economy analyzer at Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. He believed that November's CPI growth might fall somewhere between 6.2% and 6.9%. If this is really the case, analysts predict that interest rate raise might become inevitable in the coming months.
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