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May 30 - Labor1 experts have warned of huge job losses if the Chinese currency continues to appreciate sharply.
A study by the Institute of Labor Science affiliated2 to the Ministry3 of Labor and Social Security said if the yuan rises by 5-10 percent, about 3.5 million workers in non-agriculture sectors4 might lose their jobs and some 10 million farmers could be affected5. The yuan has risen by more than 7.5 percent against the US dollar since China scrapped6 the peg7 to the greenback in July 2005. The central bank set the yuan's central parity8 rate at 7.6538 to the dollar yesterday, compared with 7.6512 on Monday when it hit a new high. A stronger currency makes Chinese exports more expensive in overseas markets, damping demand; but at the same time, imports would be cheaper. The study said five non-agriculture sectors - textile, apparel, footwear, toy and motorcycle industries - would bear the heaviest brunt; as would agriculture. "The five non-agriculture industries are all labor-intensive, relying heavily on exports. Any appreciation9 will curb10 exports and wipe out enterprises' profits, which are already thin - between 3 and 5 percent," said You Jun, head of the institute, who compiled the study report with Guo Yue. "The apparel and motorcycle industries will suffer most, because both have little or no processing trade," he said. For enterprises involved in processing trade, the negative impact of the currency appreciation can be offset11 by lower prices of imported raw material and spare parts. The footwear and toy industries, which rely on exports, will also suffer greatly. In the best-case scenario12, the appreciation might only slow the growth of employment. But in the worst, all five industries - which provided 24 million jobs in 2004 - could shrink; and 3.5 million people could be sacked, the study predicted. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Dalian cities; and Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Shandong provinces will suffer more than other regions. The rise of the yuan's value will also hinder the export of agricultural products, and allow more imported agricultural products at a cheaper price. "If the yuan rises 5 to 10 percent, the price of imports of soybean, cotton, winter wheat and corn will drop by 5 to 10 percent, and as a result, the cultivated area will shrink," the study said. About 100 million farmers make a living on the four crops, and it is estimated at least one in 10 will be affected.
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