Mobile TV has so far failed to deliver on its promise of ubiquity, but analysts¹ expect worldwide user numbers to increase to 54 million in 2009.

移动电视到目前为止没有实现其“到处存在”的承诺，但是分析家认为世界范围内的用户将会在2009年达到5400万人。

Industry insiders say mobile TV uptake has been a disappointment

Analysts also predict that by 2013 there will be about 300 million people watching analogue²（类似物，模拟） TV on the so-called third screen, their smart phone.

Industry watchers said the biggest potential will be in emerging markets.

"Mobile TV is just not as big a deal as we all thought it would be," Frank Dickson of Reed Business told the BBC.

"The idea combines the two biggest things around: TV and phones. Everyone has a TV and everyone has a mobile phone. So of course the industry thought the prospect³ of bringing the two together was going to be huge.

"In reality, live mobile TV has been very slow to take off," explained Mr Dickson.

"Connected"

The study was conducted by In-Stat, which is part of Reed Business, and Californian chip maker⁴ Telegent Systems. It revealed that mobile TV users watch at least three times a week, with 20% watching daily.

Two-thirds of respondents in the white paper said they watched mobile TV for 30 minutes or more on the days they tuned⁵ in.

By comparison, in the leading markets of Japan and Korea, viewers are glued to（不愿离开，盯住不放） their third screen for over an hour.

Flo TV, which is owned by the wireless⁶ company Qualcomm, agreed that the amount of time people spend on mobile TV has surpassed the early belief that users would consume content in five minute "snacks".

"No one expects mobile TV to be watched eight hours a day like a typical household watches at home but this 30 minutes is a very meaningful figure," Jonathan Barzilay, Flo TV's senior vice⁷ president of programming and advertising⁸ told the BBC.

"We have seen tremendous spikes⁹ in viewing for live news and sport. The Michael Jackson memorial service was the highest watched programming for Flo TV. Prior to（在……之前） that the presidential election was record-setting for us.

"We continually see huge spikes for sport; for football, basketball, baseball and the like. People clearly want to stay connected even if their lifestyle requires them to be at work, or travelling or on the sidelines of a kids soccer game," said Mr Barzilay.

In its most recent Three Screen Report, Nielsen found that the estimated 13.4 million Americans who watch video on mobile phones average 3.5 hours of content compared to the three hour average for internet video.

Nielsen however said that mobile viewership is flat from a year ago when about 13 million people watched videos on their cell phones.

It reported that this is partly down to the fact only about 18% of the 270 million cell phone users in the US have smart phones like the iPhone, BlackBerry or Nokia N97

"Free is compelling"

Industry watchers believe analogue TV will win over digital TV on the smartphone, especially in developing countries.

"Analogue mobile TV accounts for the majority of the world," said Mr Dickson.

"While we tend to focus on digital in the more industrialised nations where they are turning off the analogue signal, in the lesser¹⁰ developed economies they don't have plans to switch to digital.

"As a result we see a strong uptake of mobile TV in Latin America, Central Europe, Africa and China," explained Mr Dickson.

Telegent Systems said the research showed that more than 85% of the world's population will continue to have access to analogue signals for the next several years or longer.

"The success of the free-to-air mobile TV is the result of two primary drivers," said Telegent ceo Weijie Yun.

"The fact that the content that consumers view is the same broadcast as what they watch on conventional TV. And two, the universal coverage¹¹ enabling consumers to watch it in almost every corner around the world," he said.

Mr Dickson said he believed for mobile TV to really take off, it has to offer free-to-air content.

"When we can get TV on our handset which is funded by advertising instead of subscriptions¹²（捐献，订阅）, we see a strong uptake. At the end of the day, nothing is more compelling than free," said Mr Dickson.