India is launching a $75m scheme using computer models to understand the south-west monsoon¹ and forecast the rains more accurately², officials say.

印度将投资7500万美元利用计算机研究西南季风模型和更准确的预测降雨。

India receives 80% of its annual rainfall during the summer monsoon（季风） between June and September.

A significant shortfall in rain can trigger drought, which can cause great damage to India's 235 million farmers.

There have been reports that this year's monsoon has been poor.

"Understanding the monsoon will be a major priority of the government for the next five years," says Shailesh Nayak, a senior official in the ministry³ of earth sciences.

He said efforts will be made to understand the rains using computer models developed by the UK and the US and gathering⁴ fresh data.

Forecasting the monsoon is a tricky⁵ task, as India's meteorologists（气象学家） have discovered time and again.

Last year they predicted a bad monsoon, but in the end the rains turned out to be in excess of what was forecast.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) admitted later that it was "not very accurate" in its forecasts.

In its 137-year history the IMD has never been able to predict a drought or a flood - the two extremes of a monsoon season - successfully.

Experts say scientists all over the world struggle to forecast weather patterns.

They say the IMD does a "commendable⁶ job, putting its reputation on the block" by making monsoon forecasts every year.

Monsoon watchers like Prof J Srinivasan from the Indian Institute of Science says seasonal⁷ forecasts for drought and floods are relatively⁸ accurate for the Sub-Saharan region in Africa, but no agency in the world has ever been able to predict a drought or flood for the Indian region.

The US weather office also struggles to predict droughts for North America but there have been occasions where they have been able to make seasonal drought forecasts, experts say.