专家解读央行降息考量
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2022-08-23 08:51 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
中国人民银行开展4000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作,20亿元7天公开市场逆回购操作,中标利率均下降10个基点,分别是2.75%和2%。本次央行降息超出市场预期。央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告,强化了对“不搞大水漫灌”的关注。市场预期流动性仍将保持宽松。央行在当前时点降息10个基点,笔者理解主要有以下三个原因。
 
The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, recently lowered the rate on 400 billion yuan ($58.89 billion) of one-year medium-term lending facility loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points to 2.75 percent. It also conducted 2 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 2 percent, down from 2.1 percent.
中国人民银行开展4000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作,20亿元7天公开市场逆回购操作,中标利率均下降10个基点,分别是2.75%和2%。
 
It was an unexpected cut in interest rates. In China's second-quarter monetary1 policy report, the PBOC strengthened its focus on refraining from adopting a deluge2 of strong stimulus3 policies. The market expects liquidity4 to remain ample. As for the 10 bps interest rate cuts by the central bank, we understand they were carried out mainly for the following three reasons.
本次央行降息超出市场预期。央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告,强化了对“不搞大水漫灌”的关注。市场预期流动性仍将保持宽松。央行在当前时点降息10个基点,笔者理解主要有以下三个原因。
 
First, there is a rising need for cutting interest rates to support the real economy. Growth of some key economic data slowed in July from June, which does not augur5 well for a strong economic recovery in the third quarter and points to a deep-seated lack of growth momentum6. On the one hand, demand declined owing to unsolved real estate problems. And given the increased risk of recession in Europe and the United States, the sword of Damocles is still hanging above the slowing export growth rate, despite exports' short-term resilience.
一是,降息支持实体经济的必要性提升。7月经济增长数据普遍较6月回落,三季度以来并未展现出经济强劲复苏的面貌,折射出深层次动力不足的问题。一方面是需求收缩,房地产问题仍待解决。出口短期虽有韧性,但考虑到欧美经济衰退的风险在加大,出口增速下行的“达摩克利斯之剑”仍悬。
 
On the other hand, overall market expectations are weak. During the three-year COVID-19 pandemic, some have been suffering deteriorating7 balance sheets, hampering8 consumption recovery. Meanwhile, enterprises still face problems like disruptions to production and logistics as well as insufficient9 demand, and enterprises do not have a strong willingness to use tax credit refunds10 to recycle into expanding investment.
另一方面是预期偏弱。疫情持续时间已近三年,部分居民资产负债表趋向恶化,消费复苏阻碍重重;企业生产物流受阻、需求不足问题延续,留抵退税转化为投资扩张的意愿偏弱。
 
Second, credit and social financing declined in July. Limited improvements in business and consumer confidence failed to boost demand for loans to the real economy. So far this year, social financing data have fluctuated greatly. As a result, it is still necessary to further reduce interest rates to stimulate11 loan demand.
二是,7月份信贷和社会融资规模回落。居民和企业信心改善有限,使得实体经济贷款需求疲弱。今年以来,社融数据“一波三折”。因此,仍有必要进一步降息刺激贷款需求。
 
Third, inflation and exchange rates reduced their role of acting12 as constraints13, and it is time for a more discretionary monetary policy. In terms of internal inflation, growth rates of the consumer price index and the producer price index for July were both lower than market expectations, and the growth in core CPI also slowed in July. Meanwhile, the proportion of pork prices in the CPI slipped from 2.3 percent in early 2021 to 1.3 percent in July 2022 based on the Laspeyres Price Index. Therefore, subsequent inflation levels due to rising pork prices may be less drastic than previously14 thought.
三是,通胀与汇率两大约束暂有缓解,货币政策相机抉择的时间窗口打开。就内部通胀而言,7月消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)同比增速双双低于市场预期,核心CPI增速也有下行。同时,因拉氏指数的核算方法,猪肉占CPI的权重已自2021年初的2.3%下滑至2022年7月的1.3%,这意味着后续“猪通胀”的压力可能不及市场的悲观预期。
 
As for external constraints, the latest US July consumer inflation data came in weaker than forecast, indicating a peak in overseas inflation. The market altered its expectations for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September. The US dollar index fell, and the renminbi exchange rate rose steadily15.
就外部约束而言,最新公布的美国7月物价数据低于市场预期,海外通胀出现更多见顶迹象,市场对美联储9月加息的预期降温,美元指数有所回落,人民币汇率稳中有升。
 
International capital flows are expected to achieve marginal improvements due to domestic economic recovery and lower expectations for overseas central banks to hike rates. Therefore, we may interpret the exchange rate to be "adhering to bottom-line thinking", as written in China's second-quarter monetary policy report, which better allows for two-way fluctuations16 in the exchange rate and lets the exchange rate play its role as an internal and external balance regulator under the new situation of an improved external environment and international capital flows.
在国内经济复苏、海外央行加息预期缓和的背景下,国际资本流动形势有望迎来边际改善。二季度货币政策执行报告强调汇率“坚持底线思维”,或意味着外部环境和国际资本流动形势缓和下,可适当加大对汇率双向波动的容忍度,发挥其内外平衡调节器的作用。
 
Liquidity has continued to ease this year since early April, and the rate cuts sent a positive policy signal. On the one hand, the seven-day reverse repo rate averaged only 1.56 percent in July and dropped to 1.34 percent since the beginning of August, far below the policy rate of 2.1 percent.
今年4月初以来,货币流动性不断走向宽松,本次政策利率下调释放出积极的政策信号。一方面,7天回购利率7月均值仅1.56%,8月以来更低至1.34%,远低于政策利率的2.1%。
 
On the other hand, the cost of bank liabilities fell quickly. According to a news conference on financial statistics in the first half, the interest rate on newly absorbed time deposits was 2.5 percent in June, 16 bps lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, the cost of interbank liabilities fell sharply just as the money market interest rate did, and the spread between the issuance interest rate of one-year interbank certificates of deposit and MLF loans expanded, which averaged 27 bps in the first quarter and expanded to 60 bps in July and 81 bps since the beginning of August.
另一方面,银行负债成本较快下行。上半年金融统计数据新闻发布会表示,6月份新吸收定期存款利率为2.5%,比上年同期低16个基点。同业负债成本也跟随货币市场利率较快下行,存单利率与MLF之间的点差扩大:“MLF-股份制银行一年期同业存单发行利率”的差值,一季度的均值为27个基点,7月扩大至60个基点,8月以来更扩大至81个基点。
 
The main reasons for the contraction17 of MLF loans are that banks have insufficient demand for high-cost MLF funds and the divergence18 between policy rates and market rates is huge, reducing the leading effect of MLF policy rates on the cost of bank liabilities, so there is a great need for convergence between policy rates and market rates.
而本次MLF价降量缩的原因主要在于,银行对于成本偏高的MLF资金需求不足;因政策利率与市场利率的背离已较为严重,MLF政策利率对银行负债成本的指引作用有所下滑,政策利率与市场利率的收敛存在必要性。
 
In order to employ monetary policy to support the real economy, it is urgent to maintain the stability of total credit. Against the backdrop of advance issuance of government bonds, we need to pay more attention to the growth rate of aggregate19 financing to the real economy, excluding government bonds.
货币政策要支持实体经济,亟需解决“稳信用”的持续性问题。在政府债发行前置,更需关注剔除政府债后的社融存量增速。
 
We expect to see some monetary policy tools in the second half. This will increase medium and long-term lending. In the fields of technological20 innovation and green development, if funding is not as expected, it can be optimized21 by improving financial support in relending or extending the scope of funding applications. In the field of traditional infrastructure22, policy-related and developmental financial instruments are combined with an 800 billion yuan increase in policy banks' lending quotas23 to fund infrastructure projects, thus leveraging24 infrastructure financing.
下半年还可期待的货币政策工具包括:加大中长期贷款的投放力度。在科技创新和绿色领域,如资金投放不及预期,可从提升再贷款资金支持比例、推广适用领域等方面优化拓展空间;在传统基建领域方面,政策性、开发性金融工具,政策性银行新增的8000亿元贷款额度相互配合,着眼于撬动配套的基建融资。
 
Also, there is a need to fully25 meet the credit needs of micro and small businesses, real estate and enterprises affected26 by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is advisable that the PBOC considers lowering relending rates for the agriculture sector27 and small businesses once more by 10 to 25 bps.
此外,充分满足普惠小微领域、房地产领域、及疫情受损行业企业的信贷需求。可考虑进一步下调支农支小再贷款利率10至25个基点。
 
In addition, there is a need to stimulate demand for lending by improving the market reform mechanism28 for deposit rates and further lowering deposit rates, so the over-five-year loan prime rate may be reduced notably29. Meanwhile, the PBOC could cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point when necessary, which would lead to a reduction in LPR by 5 bps.
通过完善存款利率市场化改革机制、进一步压降存款利率,刺激贷款需求,或可带动5年期贷款基础利率(LPR)更大幅度下行。同时,还可适时降准0.25至0.5个百分点以推动LPR再下行5个基点。
 
What needs to be emphasized is that according to current cuts in policy interest rates and lending rates, monetary policy is extending more support to the real economy, which is comparable to the period when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. However, the current economic recovery is clearly weaker than at that time, so monetary policy easing will continue.
需要强调的是,以当前政策利率、贷款利率的调降幅度看,货币政策对实体经济的支持力度不亚于2020年新冠疫情后,但当前经济复苏的力度较当时要逊色,因此货币政策宽松的态势应会延续。
 
The writers are Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist30 at Ping An Securities Co Ltd and director of the China Chief Economist Forum31, and Zhang Lu and Chang Yixin, analysts32 at Ping An Securities.
作者:钟正生/张璐/常艺馨(钟正生为平安证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事)
 
Their views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
文章观点并不代表本网站立场。


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 monetary pEkxb     
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的
参考例句:
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
2 deluge a9nyg     
n./vt.洪水,暴雨,使泛滥
参考例句:
  • This little stream can become a deluge when it rains heavily.雨大的时候,这条小溪能变作洪流。
  • I got caught in the deluge on the way home.我在回家的路上遇到倾盆大雨。
3 stimulus 3huyO     
n.刺激,刺激物,促进因素,引起兴奋的事物
参考例句:
  • Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
  • Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。
4 liquidity VRXzb     
n.流动性,偿债能力,流动资产
参考例句:
  • The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
  • The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。
5 augur 7oHyF     
n.占卦师;v.占卦
参考例句:
  • Does this news augur war?这消息预示将有战争吗?
  • The signs augur well for tomorrow's weather.种种征候预示明天天气良好。
6 momentum DjZy8     
n.动力,冲力,势头;动量
参考例句:
  • We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
  • The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。
7 deteriorating 78fb3515d7abc3a0539b443be0081fb1     
恶化,变坏( deteriorate的现在分词 )
参考例句:
  • The weather conditions are deteriorating. 天气变得越来越糟。
  • I was well aware of the bad morale and the deteriorating factories. 我很清楚,大家情绪低落,各个工厂越搞越坏。
8 hampering 8bacf6f47ad97606aa653cf73b51b2da     
妨碍,束缚,限制( hamper的现在分词 )
参考例句:
  • So fraud on cows and development aid is seriously hampering growth. 因此在牛问题上和发展补助上的诈骗严重阻碍了发展。
  • Short-termism, carbon-trading, disputing the science-are hampering the implementation of direct economically-led objectives. 短效主义,出售二氧化碳,进行科学辩论,这些都不利于实现以经济为主导的直接目标。
9 insufficient L5vxu     
adj.(for,of)不足的,不够的
参考例句:
  • There was insufficient evidence to convict him.没有足够证据给他定罪。
  • In their day scientific knowledge was insufficient to settle the matter.在他们的时代,科学知识还不能足以解决这些问题。
10 refunds 0084ff716402199f733f841f5937d3ae     
n.归还,偿还额,退款( refund的名词复数 )v.归还,退还( refund的第三人称单数 )
参考例句:
  • Tomorrow he would return them to the store and claim refunds. 明天他要把它们退还给商店并要求退款。 来自辞典例句
  • The new method means that taxpayers get refunds much faster. 这种新办法意味着纳税人可以较快地领到退还款。 来自辞典例句
11 stimulate wuSwL     
vt.刺激,使兴奋;激励,使…振奋
参考例句:
  • Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
  • Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。
12 acting czRzoc     
n.演戏,行为,假装;adj.代理的,临时的,演出用的
参考例句:
  • Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她,她只是假装的。
  • During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代,她的表演生涯黯然失色。
13 constraints d178923285d63e9968956a0a4758267e     
强制( constraint的名词复数 ); 限制; 约束
参考例句:
  • Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
  • What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么? 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
14 previously bkzzzC     
adv.以前,先前(地)
参考例句:
  • The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
  • Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿,解释原先发生了什么。
15 steadily Qukw6     
adv.稳定地;不变地;持续地
参考例句:
  • The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
  • Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。
16 fluctuations 5ffd9bfff797526ec241b97cfb872d61     
波动,涨落,起伏( fluctuation的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table. 他用统计表显示价格的波动。
  • There were so many unpredictable fluctuations on the Stock Exchange. 股票市场瞬息万变。
17 contraction sn6yO     
n.缩略词,缩写式,害病
参考例句:
  • The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
  • The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。
18 divergence kkazz     
n.分歧,岔开
参考例句:
  • There is no sure cure for this transatlantic divergence.没有什么灵丹妙药可以消除大西洋两岸的分歧。
  • In short,it was an age full of conflicts and divergence of values.总之,这一时期是矛盾与价值观分歧的时期。
19 aggregate cKOyE     
adj.总计的,集合的;n.总数;v.合计;集合
参考例句:
  • The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
  • The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。
20 technological gqiwY     
adj.技术的;工艺的
参考例句:
  • A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
  • Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今, 随着科技进步,生活节奏不断增快。
21 optimized 81c61ac8ff2adb570ce4c7e7dfed59bd     
adj.最佳化的,(使)最优化的v.使最优化,使尽可能有效( optimize的过去式和过去分词 )
参考例句:
  • We are often asked whether consumer Web sites should be optimized for beginners or intermediates. 我们常常被问到这样的问题:消费类网站究竟应该为新手而优化,还是应该为中间用户而优化? 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
  • GOOGLE Advertising optimized sequence, greatly increasing the advertising effect. 优化了GOOGLE广告位排列顺序,大大增加了广告效果。 来自互联网
22 infrastructure UbBz5     
n.下部构造,下部组织,基础结构,基础设施
参考例句:
  • We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
  • We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设,发展各类群众文化。
23 quotas 56efa1d6a3d7b4abe55e080dda812715     
(正式限定的)定量( quota的名词复数 ); 定额; 指标; 摊派
参考例句:
  • In fulfilling the production quotas, John made rings round all his fellow workers. 约翰完成生产定额大大超过他的同事们。
  • Quotas of the means of production are allocated by the higher administrative bodies to the lower ones. 物资指标按隶属关系分配。
24 leveraging c57a4d2d0d4d7cf20e93e33b2873abed     
促使…改变( leverage的现在分词 ); [美国英语]杠杆式投机,(使)举债经营,(使)利用贷款进行投机
参考例句:
  • De-leveraging is a painful process: it has barely begun. 去杠杆化是个痛苦的过程:它才刚刚开始。
  • Archimedes said, saying: Give me a fulcrum, I can leveraging the Earth. 阿基米德说过一句话:给我一个支点,我可以撬动地球。
25 fully Gfuzd     
adv.完全地,全部地,彻底地;充分地
参考例句:
  • The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气,然后全部呼出。
  • They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。
26 affected TzUzg0     
adj.不自然的,假装的
参考例句:
  • She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
  • His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。
27 sector yjczYn     
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形
参考例句:
  • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
  • The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。
28 mechanism zCWxr     
n.机械装置;机构,结构
参考例句:
  • The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
  • The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。
29 notably 1HEx9     
adv.值得注意地,显著地,尤其地,特别地
参考例句:
  • Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席,特别是连班长也没来。
  • A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小,一头银发,每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。
30 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人
参考例句:
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家,自以为什么都懂。
31 forum cilx0     
n.论坛,讨论会
参考例句:
  • They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
  • The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。
32 analysts 167ff30c5034ca70abe2d60a6e760448     
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
  • I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。
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