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Chinanews, Beijing, Sept. 21 – General administrator1 of the State Statistics Bureau Qiu Xiaohua recently said in an academic report that before 2020, China should keep its GDP growth at around 7–8%, so as to keep a sustainable development in the economic field. If the GDP growth rate exceeds 9%, it might adversely2 affect the national economy.
In the report jointly3 made by Qiu and some other economists4, Qiu predicts the three possible development trends for the Chinese economy under a 7%, 8% or 9% GDP growth rate. Based on the analysis, they conclude that before 2020, it would be acceptable for China to keep its GDP growth rate between 7-8%. The report analyses that if the GDP growth rate reaches 9%, China will encounter a big oil supply shortage. If investment exceeds certain amount, it will hurt economic structure and the economy will be unable to keep a sustainable development. If such GDP growth exceeds 9%, Consumer Price Index, or inflation rate, will rise more than 5%. It is a well-known fact that when inflation rate exceeds 3%, it will be a dangerous sign to the economy. Currently, China’s inflation rate is kept below 2%. Capital and energy supply will be the two main factors to constrain5 China’s economic growth in future. In order to keep a sustainable development, China should shift its economic growth mode, from one that depends heavily on energy resources to one that promotes consumption.
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