Chinanews, Beijing, Apr. 6 – Investment banks and various research institutes predict that Chinese economy might maintain the momentum¹ of high growth in the first quarter and for the whole year in 2007. Economy is expected to grow at a rate faster than some institutions previously² predicted, the China Securities Journal reported.

The State Information Center, the Macroeconomic Research Institute under the State Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Research Co.,Ltd, the Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co., Ltd, the Guotai Junan Securities, the Unirule Institute of Economics, the Citigroup, and the BNP Paribas estimate that during the first quarter of the year, Chinese GDP growth rate might reach 10.5%-11%.

Export growth became the major driving force for the economy during the first quarter. In addition, consumption grew fast and investment remained hot. Backed by all these factors, GDP growth rate might probably exceed 11% for the first quarter and reach 10.7% for the whole year, said an expert from the Macroeconomic Research Institute under the State Development and Reform Commission.

Trade volume in the first quarter remained relatively³ the same as in the previous two months. While export volume might increase 30%, import volume might keep a steady growth of 20%. Based on this, the above institutions predict that trade surplus might reach 60 billion US dollars during the first quarter and exceed 200 billion US dollars for the whole year.

With a fast economic development rate, inflation rate is also climbing. It is estimated that inflation rate might reach 2.6% for the first quarter. In some months, inflation rate might hit 3%.

If key economic factors such as investment, export volume, consumption and credit loan release continue to grow, the central bank might take tightened⁴ monetary⁵ policies to cool down the economy during the second and third quarters, some economists⁶ predict.