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Chinanews, Beijing, July 19 – Based on the current GDP in China and Germany, some experts predict that China might overtake Germany to rank third in GDP in the world this year, only next to the United States and Japan, the China Securities Journal reported.
According to information released by the National Statistics Bureau last week, in 2006 China’s GDP reached 21.087 trillion yuan, or 2.70 trillion US dollars, which was very close to Germany, whose GDP stood at 2.30 trillion euros (2.86 trillion US dollars). The National Statistics Bureau has released a set of information about China's macro economy during the first half of this year on Thursday morning. China's GDP totaled 10.68 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a growth of 11.5% year on year, according to latest figures. However, analysts1 point out that GDP growth rate of Germany might reach at most 2.8%. If China can maintain the current GDP growth rate, by the end of 2007, its GDP for the whole year will reach at least 23.428 trillion yuan, while the GDP of Germany might reach 2.364 trillion euros at most. If converted by the official exchange rate ratio released on July 17 (on that day, the exchange rate ratio of euro against yuan was 1: 10.4198), then the GDP in Germany will be more than that of China. However, it should be considered that during the first half of this year, the yuan exchange rate against the euro was at an unusually low level. So, it is still probable that China’s GDP might exceed Germany by the end of this year. Recently, Nobel Prize winner for economics Robert William Fogel wrote an article, in which he predicts that by 2040, China's GDP might reach 123.675 trillion US dollars, which will account for 40% of the global GDP and more than the combined GDP total of the United States, India, the European Union, and Japan.
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