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Chinanews, Shanghai, Aug 1 – The Research Institute of the Construction Bank of China (CBC) recently issued a report about the prospect1 of Chinese finance industry during the second half of this year. The report predicts that in the latter half of the year, excessive liquidity2 problem will continue. In light of this, the possibilities might not be excluded that the central bank might further raise the interest rates and the required reserved ratio. Such measures might probably come out during the fourth quarter. The report further predicts that Chinese stock market will hit new highs during this period, the Shanghai Securities Journal reported.
During the first half of the year, the central government raised the required reserved ratio six times. As a result, about 850 billion yuan were returned. In addition, the central bank raised the interest rate twice and issued the central bank notes with a total value of 2.64 trillion yuan. Despite this, the report says, excessive liquidity problem still exists and there is abundant money supply in the market. The report predicts that during the second half of the year, particularly during the fourth quarter, the central bank might probably raise the interest rate again. It might also raise the required reserved ratio. At the same time, the deposit gains tax might be abolished completely. The report predicts that excessive liquidity will continue to exist during the second half of the year. The yuan appreciation3 process will quicken. Meanwhile, there will be fiercer competition among banks for the same types of service products they offer. More regulatory measures will be taken to control the real estate market. CBC's research institute predicts that China's GDP growth for the whole year will reach 11.5%.
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