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Chinanews, Beijing, Dec. 6 – The sluggish1 demand from foreign markets, instead of policy guidance, will make Chinese economy take a soft landing in autumn next year. In spite of this, Chinese GDP will maintain a 10% growth next year as boosted by a continued growth in consumption and investment at home, said Wang Qing, chief economist2 at Morgan Stanley, in a report on Tuesday.
According to this report, there will be 60% possibility for Chinese economy to take an "imported soft landing" in autumn as a result of sluggish demand from foreign markets, 25% of possibility for the economy to become overheated in summer, 10% of possibility for the economy to take a soft landing in spring as a result of policy guidance, and 5% of possibility for it to take a direct hard landing in winter. “The fast increasing export volume has made China vulnerable to the changes occurring in major industrial nations. We expect that in 2008, Chinese export, which has maintained a 30% high annual growth for several consecutive3 years, will start to slow down,” said Wang. The past experiences had shown that when export slowed down, deflation would occur, he said. The report predicts that, if “imported soft landing” does occur, the actual GDP growth will reach 10% next year and CPI growth will reach 4%. Meanwhile, the growths for import and export will reach 18% and 16%, respectively.
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