分析人士5月5日表示，尽管受国内疫情扰动及海外美联储加息等多重因素影响，但在更有力的政策支持和更有效的疫情防控之下，预计中国经济将保持其韧性，并可能在未来几个月内实现回升。

 

The Chinese economy is expected to maintain its resilience and may rebound¹ in the coming months with stronger policy support and better epidemic² containment³, bucking⁴ the negative impact of a tightening⁵ in US monetary⁶ policy, analysts⁸ said on Thursday.

分析人士5月5日表示，在更有力的政策支持和更有效的疫情防控之下，预计中国经济将保持其韧性，并可能在未来几个月内实现回升，抵御美国货币政策紧缩带来的消极影响。

 

They made the remarks after the US Federal Reserve approved a half-percentage point interest rate increase on Wednesday－its second hike this year and its biggest in 22 years－to stem the highest inflation level in the US in four decades.

在美联储5月4日宣布加息半个百分点后分析人士发表了上述言论。这是美联储今年第二次加息，也是22年来最大幅度加息，目的是遏制美国40年来最高水平的通货膨胀。

 

Apart from raising its target federal funds rate to a range between 0.75 percent and 1 percent, the Fed said it could further impose half-percentage point hikes in each of the next two months and will start balance sheet reduction from June.

除了将美国联邦基金利率目标上调至0.75%至1%之间，美联储还表示，未来两个月可能会进一步上调半个百分点，并将从6月开始缩减资产负债表。

 

Huang Yiping, chairman of the academic committee of the China Finance 40 Forum⁹, said the Fed's ongoing¹⁰ tightening could shrink global liquidity¹¹ and pile on the pressure of capital outflows and currency depreciation¹² on many developing economies.

中国金融四十人论坛学术委员会主席黄益平表示，美联储持续的紧缩政策可能会收缩全球资产流动性，并给许多发展中经济体带来资本外流和货币贬值的压力。

 

For China, the country's vast domestic economy, relatively¹³ sound fundamentals, large foreign exchange reserves and a steady trade surplus provide a buffer¹⁴ against the spillover effects of US tightening, Huang said.

黄益平称，对中国来说，中国庞大的国内经济、相对稳健的基本面、庞大的外汇储备和稳定的贸易顺差为美国紧缩政策的溢出效应提供了缓冲。

 

"Yet the key (to cushioning the spillover) remains¹⁵ stabilizing¹⁶ macroeconomic conditions," said Huang, who is also a former member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank.

曾任中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员的黄益平表示：“然而（缓冲溢出效应的）关键仍然是稳定宏观经济状况。”

 

"If the economy continuously weakens, the impact of US tightening will be amplified¹⁷ with a stronger tendency of investors¹⁸ to trim holdings in Chinese financial assets. However, if China's economy maintains steady growth and offers decent investment returns, the risk of capital outflows will ease," he said.

他称：“如果经济持续疲软，美国紧缩政策的影响将进一步扩大，投资者将更倾向于减少对中国金融资产的持有。然而，如果中国经济保持稳定增长并提供可观的投资回报，资本外流的风险将得到缓解。”

 

China has strengthened efforts to stabilize¹⁹ the economy, a step that was decided²⁰ at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, the Party's core leadership, on April 29 to step up macro policy adjustments and work hard to achieve annual economic and social development goals.

4月29日中共中央政治局会议决定，采取更强有力的措施稳定经济，加强宏观政策调整，努力实现年度经济和社会发展目标。

 

Different regulators have since pledged more measures to support the economy, with the central bank vowing²¹ on Wednesday it would formulate²² new policy tools at an early date to stabilize economic growth, employment and price levels.

此后，各监管机构承诺采取更多措施支持经济，人民银行5月4日承诺将在近期制定新的政策工具，以稳定经济增长、就业和价格水平。

 

Supportive measures in addition to those previously²³ set for the year have become necessary not only due to the challenges brought by the Fed's tightening, but because of the shocks caused by a resurgence²⁴ in domestic COVID-19 cases and a worsening in geopolitical tensions, experts said.

专家表示，除了先前为今年制定的措施外，还需要采取支持性措施，这不仅是因为美联储紧缩政策带来的挑战，也是因为国内新冠疫情反弹以及地缘政治紧张局势的恶化所造成的冲击。

 

China's service activity fell in April at the sharpest rate since the initial COVID lockdowns in early 2020, a private survey released by the Caixin media group said on Thursday.

财新传媒集团5月5日发布的一项调查显示，中国4月份的服务业经营活动出现了自2020年初首次疫情封控以来最大幅度的下降。

 

The Caixin China General Services Purchasing Managers' Index, which gauges²⁵ service activity, dropped from 42.0 in March to 36.2 in April, the lowest reading since February 2020 and having contracted for the second consecutive²⁶ month.

衡量服务业活动的财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数从3月的42.0降至4月的36.2，这是自2020年2月以来的最低水平，并已连续两个月收缩。

 

Huang said it is sensible for fiscal²⁷ policy to beef up support by directly bolstering²⁸ domestic demand, adding that reducing interest rates could help improve corporate²⁹ cash flows but could intensify³⁰ the pressure of stabilizing cross-border capital flows.

黄益平称，财政政策通过直接提振国内需求来加强支持是明智之举。他补充说，降低利率可能有助于改善企业现金流，但可能会加大稳定跨境资本流的压力。

 

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist³¹ at Yuekai Securities, said it could be advisable to issue special treasury³² bonds to accelerate infrastructure³³ investment and subsidize smaller businesses, low-income groups, and hard-hit sectors³⁴.

粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒表示，可以发行特别国债以加快基础设施投资、补贴小企业、低收入群体和受重创行业。

 

Upon better containment of COVID-19 and proactive policy support, the Chinese economy is poised³⁵ to stage a strong rebound after hitting a nadir³⁶ in April, said Yin Yue, a macroeconomic analyst⁷ at Hongta Securities.

红塔证券宏观经济分析师殷悦（音译）表示，在疫情得到有效控制以及国内政策积极主动发力之下，中国经济在4月份触底后将迎来强劲回升。

 

Yin said the impact of the domestic COVID-19 outbreak is gradually fading with the restoration of supply chain activity, while infrastructure construction has maintained a buoyant expansion rate in April and helped offset³⁷ downward economic pressures.

殷悦称，随着供应链的恢复，国内疫情的影响正在逐渐减弱，而4月份基础设施建设保持了强劲的扩张速度，有助于抵消经济下行压力。

 

Yet experts caution that uncertainties³⁸ surrounding the COVID-19 situation and the external environment could still complicate³⁹ China's economic recovery and weigh on the yuan.

然而，专家警告称，围绕新冠疫情和外部环境的不确定性仍可能使中国经济复苏复杂化，并对人民币造成压力。

 

Zhang Liqing, director of the Central University of Finance and Economics' Center for International Finance Studies, said the yuan may continue to face depreciation pressure this year as US tightening underpins⁴⁰ the dollar and the epidemic situation in major Chinese cities aggravates⁴¹ economic uncertainties.

中央财经大学国际金融研究中心主任张礼卿表示，今年人民币可能继续面临贬值压力，因为美国收紧货币政策支撑美元，而中国主要城市的疫情加剧了经济不确定性。

 

The onshore yuan dropped to 6.62 against the dollar on Thursday afternoon, having weakened by nearly 4 percent since the beginning of the year.

5月5日下午，在岸人民币兑美元汇率跌至6.62，自年初以来已贬值近4%。

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