Climate protection 'to cost more' 气候保护“耗费更多”
文章来源:未知 文章作者:meng 发布时间:2009-08-28 05:41 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
(单词翻译:双击或拖选)

Protecting societies against the impacts of climate change will be much more expensive than previously1 believed, according to a new analysis.

一项新的分析显示,保护社会免受气候变化带来的影响所耗费的钱财比先前预算的多很多。

In 2007, the UN climate convention(大会,协定) came up with a sum of $49-171bn per year.

The new report says the UN sums omitted important factors and the true cost will be two to three times higher.

Developing nations want rich countries to provide major sums for adaptation as part of the new UN climate deal due to be agreed in Copenhagen in December.

"The amount of money on the table at Copenhagen is one of the key factors that will determine whether we achieve a climate change agreement," said lead author Martin Parry, a visiting research fellow with the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London.

"But previous estimates of adaptation costs have substantially misjudged the scale of funds needed."

Professor Parry co-chaired the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group on climate impacts for its 2007 assessment2.

The new report - issued under the aegis3 of(在……支持下) the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and the Grantham Institute - says that some aspects of the UN estimates were wrong by a factor of more than 100.

Call to caution

The UN climate convention (UNFCCC) made its assessment(评估) in 2007 after the IPCC concluded the task was too difficult; and Professor Parry suggested it had been done in a hurry, with some vital caveats4(警告) ignored in subsequent deliberations.

A spokesman for the UNFCCC defended the process but said the organisation5 had a responsibility to be conservative.

"Looking at what was out there in 2007, these were best estimates, which we simply collected; and we had to err6 on the side of caution," he said.

Recently the UNFCCC's executive secretary Yvo de Boer has tended to use the figure of $100bn (£60bn) per year.

Professor Parry told BBC News that a key point of the new report, Assessing the Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change, was that it included "bottom-up" as well as "top-down" analyses.

"One study shows the cost of adapting a single watershed7(流域) in China - that's one of the few case studies that's been done - comes in at a billion dollars a year," he said.

"So when you start adding up the various figures you soon start to exceed the global number (in the UN's analysis)."

He said UNFCCC calculations had taken into account only half of the extra disease burden due to emerge from climate change, assumed low levels of future development in Africa (so giving less infrastructure8 to protect), used low estimates for sea level rise and had not included the economic costs of nature loss.

Financial key

Securing funds for climate protection, or adaptation, is a key priority for developing countries in the run-up to the Copenhagen conference, which is supposed to secure a new global agreement supplanting9(排挤,取代) the Kyoto Protocol10.

Earlier this week the African Union suggested it would be asking for $67bn (£40bn) per year for Africa alone.

"Finance is the key that will unlock the negotiations11 in Copenhagen," said IIED director Camilla Toulmin.

"But if governments are working with the wrong numbers, we could end up with a false deal that fails to cover the costs of adaptation to climate change."

A priority for the UN climate secretariat is to secure mechanisms12 that ensure sums of any size can be raised without constantly having to re-negotiate new terms.

Most is expected to be raised through levies13 on carbon trading, but Mr de Boer believes developed countries will need to pledge up-front sums in the region of $10bn per year.

Further analyses from the World Bank and management consultants14 McKinsey and Company are due out before the Copenhagen talks.



点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 previously bkzzzC     
adv.以前,先前(地)
参考例句:
  • The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
  • Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿,解释原先发生了什么。
2 assessment vO7yu     
n.评价;评估;对财产的估价,被估定的金额
参考例句:
  • This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
  • What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何?
3 aegis gKJyi     
n.盾;保护,庇护
参考例句:
  • Medical supplies are flied in under the aegis of the red cross.在红十字会的保护下,正在空运进医药用品。
  • The space programme will continue under the aegis of the armed forces.这项太空计划将以武装部队作后盾继续进行。
4 caveats 48df864755bcc93c76f4c52b05b18aeb     
警告
参考例句:
  • I would offer a caveat for those who want to join me in the dual calling. 为防止发生误解,我想对那些想要步我后尘的人提出警告。 来自辞典例句
  • As I have written before, that's quite a caveat. 正如我以前所写,那确实是个警告。 来自互联网
5 organisation organisation     
n.组织,安排,团体,有机休
参考例句:
  • The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
  • His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。
6 err 2izzk     
vi.犯错误,出差错
参考例句:
  • He did not err by a hair's breadth in his calculation.他的计算结果一丝不差。
  • The arrows err not from their aim.箭无虚发。
7 watershed jgQwo     
n.转折点,分水岭,分界线
参考例句:
  • Our marriage was at a watershed.我们的婚姻到了一个转折关头。
  • It forms the watershed between the two rivers.它成了两条河流的分水岭。
8 infrastructure UbBz5     
n.下部构造,下部组织,基础结构,基础设施
参考例句:
  • We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
  • We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设,发展各类群众文化。
9 supplanting 55014765c74fea793d89472381bf1a0e     
把…排挤掉,取代( supplant的现在分词 )
参考例句:
10 protocol nRQxG     
n.议定书,草约,会谈记录,外交礼节
参考例句:
  • We must observe the correct protocol.我们必须遵守应有的礼仪。
  • The statesmen signed a protocol.那些政治家签了议定书。
11 negotiations af4b5f3e98e178dd3c4bac64b625ecd0     
协商( negotiation的名词复数 ); 谈判; 完成(难事); 通过
参考例句:
  • negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
  • Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。
12 mechanisms d0db71d70348ef1c49f05f59097917b8     
n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 );机械装置;[生物学] 机制;机械作用
参考例句:
  • The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》
13 levies 2ac53e2c8d44bb62d35d55dd4dbb08b1     
(部队)征兵( levy的名词复数 ); 募捐; 被征募的军队
参考例句:
  • At that time, taxes and levies were as many as the hairs on an ox. 那时,苛捐杂税多如牛毛。
  • Variable levies can insulate farmers and consumers from world markets. 差价进口税可以把农民和消费者与世界市场隔离开来。
14 consultants c6fbb5ca6219111731f9c4c4d2675810     
顾问( consultant的名词复数 ); 高级顾问医生,会诊医生
参考例句:
  • a firm of management consultants 管理咨询公司
  • There're many consultants in hospital. 医院里有很多会诊医生。
TAG标签: climate cost protect
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