Austrian mathematicians¹ have revealed why you should put your money on either Brazil or Germany for the 2018 World Cup.

 

奥地利数学家解释了本届世界杯期间大家应该投注给巴西和德国的原因。

 

The two teams are neck-and-neck favourites to win the tournament, according to a set of millions of calculations based on hundreds of betting odds².

 

Experts said while Brazil have a 16.6 percent probability of winning the title, defending world champions Germany are close behind with a 15.8 percent chance.

 

The research team has successfully predicted several tournament outcomes in the past, among them the correct world champions Spain in the 2010 World Cup and three out of four semi-finalists in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

 

Researchers at the University of Innsbruck in Austria combined the odds of 26 online bookmakers and betting exchanges with a complex set of statistical³ models.

 

Using these calculations to simulate all possible games and results, Brazil and Germany came out on top more than all other teams.

 

Though a final between the two seems likely, the models were unable to predict which of the teams would lift the trophy⁴.

 

Brazil's probability of winning the final against Germany is just 50.6 percent, leaving the defending champions with a 49.4 percent chance in the final.

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