经济学家预测欧洲杯冠军
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2012-06-16 07:29 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
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Tired of the constant barrage1 of depressing headlines from the eurozone debt crisis, German economists2 have turned their skills to the rather more fun task of forecasting the European Championships.

德国经济学家为不断传来的欧债危机坏消息疲倦不已。今年欧洲杯开赛后,他们把自己的经济技巧应用于更加有趣的工作:预测欧洲杯冠军。

Using a variety of tongue-in-cheek models usually applied3 to complex questions of bond markets or credit default swaps4, most analysts5 have ended up with far from earth-shattering tips, backing favourites Spain or Germany.

The good news for people concerned for the future of the euro area is that the chances of a team from the 17-nation zone lifting Europe's premier6 football trophy7(奖品,战利品) is a whopping 86 percent, according to economists at DekaBank.

Analysing the results of the past four European Championships and feeding it into a complex mathematical model, the economists came up with the prediction: "Along with Spain and the Netherlands, Germany is one of the favourites."

In a research note entitled "Soccernomics", boffins at ABN Amro said their work was done with a "quasi-serious approach."

"Because after all, football is the most important of all unimportant things. We certainly need some light relief these days. Europe -- in particular the eurozone -- has been engulfed8 in a crisis for two years now," they added.

ABN Amro cross-checked a country's footballing record with its credit rating and concluded that Germany would be triumphant9 come the final of Europe's top footballing competition on July 1.

For the eurozone as a whole, however, the research note concludes: "From an economic perspective, the best outcome would be a French victory" as it would boost confidence in one of the shakiest "core" eurozone nations.

Economists at UniCredit really went to town, feeding in macroeconomic data to complex mathematical models in a bid to predict the winner.

They calculated the worth of each individual team based on the transfer market value of their players and decided10 that the two semi-finals would be "genuine classics" pitting traditional rivals against each other.

"Portugal (338 million euros) against Spain (658 million euros) and Germany (459 million euros) against England (392 million euros)" was the final prediction.



点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 barrage JuezH     
n.火力网,弹幕
参考例句:
  • The attack jumped off under cover of a barrage.进攻在炮火的掩护下开始了。
  • The fierce artillery barrage destroyed the most part of the city in a few minutes.猛烈的炮火几分钟内便毁灭了这座城市的大部分地区。
2 economists 2ba0a36f92d9c37ef31cc751bca1a748     
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
  • Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
3 applied Tz2zXA     
adj.应用的;v.应用,适用
参考例句:
  • She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
  • This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。
4 swaps 7852508deb41ee8610612c888aea2f12     
交换( swap的名词复数 ); 交换物,被掉换者
参考例句:
  • He swaps his old car for a new motorcycle. 他用旧车换了一辆新摩托车。 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 口语
  • Swaps the anchor and end points of the current selection. 交换当前所选内容的定位点和结束点。
5 analysts 167ff30c5034ca70abe2d60a6e760448     
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
  • I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。
6 premier R19z3     
adj.首要的;n.总理,首相
参考例句:
  • The Irish Premier is paying an official visit to Britain.爱尔兰总理正在对英国进行正式访问。
  • He requested that the premier grant him an internview.他要求那位总理接见他一次。
7 trophy 8UFzI     
n.优胜旗,奖品,奖杯,战胜品,纪念品
参考例句:
  • The cup is a cherished trophy of the company.那只奖杯是该公司很珍惜的奖品。
  • He hung the lion's head as a trophy.他把那狮子头挂起来作为狩猎纪念品。
8 engulfed 52ce6eb2bc4825e9ce4b243448ffecb3     
v.吞没,包住( engulf的过去式和过去分词 )
参考例句:
  • He was engulfed by a crowd of reporters. 他被一群记者团团围住。
  • The little boat was engulfed by the waves. 小船被波浪吞没了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
9 triumphant JpQys     
adj.胜利的,成功的;狂欢的,喜悦的
参考例句:
  • The army made a triumphant entry into the enemy's capital.部队胜利地进入了敌方首都。
  • There was a positively triumphant note in her voice.她的声音里带有一种极为得意的语气。
10 decided lvqzZd     
adj.决定了的,坚决的;明显的,明确的
参考例句:
  • This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
  • There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。
TAG标签: football debt Euro
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